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Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?

Tina Kotek95¢95%
Troy Jackson85¢85%
Kathy Hochul45¢45%
$98,183.38 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Tina Kotek's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears. Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used. Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. Shares are compared unrounded. Offices: Troy Jackson, U.S. Senate (Maine); Tina Kotek, Governor (Oregon); Keisha Lance Bottoms, Governor (Georgia); Kathy Hochul, Governor (New York); Chris Pappas, U.S. Senate (New Hampshire); Abdul El-Sayed, U.S. Senate (Michigan); Angie Nixon, U.S. Senate (Florida); David Jolly, Governor (Florida); Peggy Flanagan, U.S. Senate (Minnesota). A market resolves NO if the listed person is not the Democratic nominee (for Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee) on that race's 2026 general-election ballot.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Peggy Flanagan
    Volume$21,200.52
    Price45¢
    +7.14% today
  • David Jolly
    Volume$16,327.96
    Price16¢
    -8.33% today
  • Tina Kotek
    Volume$13,518.00
    Price97¢
    +1.06% today
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms
    Volume$13,205.70
    Price38¢
    +5.56% today
  • Angie Nixon
    Volume$12,841.08
    Price19¢
    -5.88% today
  • Troy Jackson
    Volume$8,752.34
    Price86¢
    +1.19% today
  • Kathy Hochul
    Volume$7,939.08
    Price47¢
    +7.14% today
  • Abdul El-Sayed
    Volume$2,428.42
    Price27¢
    -20.83% today
  • Chris Pappas
    Volume$1,970.28
    Price25¢
    -18.18% today

Trade No contracts

  • Peggy Flanagan
    Volume$21,200.52
    Price62¢
    -5.17% today
  • David Jolly
    Volume$16,327.96
    Price88¢
    +1.14% today
  • Tina Kotek
    Volume$13,518.00
    Price9¢
    -16.67% today
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms
    Volume$13,205.70
    Price66¢
    -3.13% today
  • Angie Nixon
    Volume$12,841.08
    Price84¢
    +1.20% today
  • Troy Jackson
    Volume$8,752.34
    Price19¢
    -6.25% today
  • Kathy Hochul
    Volume$7,939.08
    Price57¢
    -5.17% today
  • Abdul El-Sayed
    Volume$2,428.42
    Price79¢
    +6.58% today
  • Chris Pappas
    Volume$1,970.28
    Price81¢
    +5.13% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?. The leading outcome is Tina Kotek, with an estimated probability of 95% and a Yes contract price of $0.97. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026? is Jan 4, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Federal Election Commission, Florida Department of State, Georgia Secretary of State, Maine Secretary of State, Michigan Department of State, Minnesota Secretary of State, New Hampshire Secretary of State, New York State Board of Elections, Oregon Secretary of State as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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