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Midterms

Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?

Trump +5 or more98¢98%
Trump +10 or more97¢97%
Trump +15 or more91¢91%
$113,272.60 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceAssociated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$113,272.60
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Trump +30 or more
    Volume$29,833.62
    Price7¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +10 or more
    Volume$16,616.02
    Price98¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +22 or more
    Volume$15,101.32
    Price23¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +15 or more
    Volume$15,014.28
    Price93¢
    -1.09% today
  • Trump +25 or more
    Volume$13,050.02
    Price12¢
    -8.33% today
  • Trump +18 or more
    Volume$10,296.50
    Price61¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +20 or more
    Volume$7,182.08
    Price48¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +5 or more
    Volume$6,178.76
    Price99¢
    0.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Trump +30 or more
    Volume$29,833.62
    Price94¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +10 or more
    Volume$16,616.02
    Price4¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +22 or more
    Volume$15,101.32
    Price78¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +15 or more
    Volume$15,014.28
    Price8¢
    +12.50% today
  • Trump +25 or more
    Volume$13,050.02
    Price89¢
    +1.14% today
  • Trump +18 or more
    Volume$10,296.50
    Price40¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +20 or more
    Volume$7,182.08
    Price53¢
    0.00% today
  • Trump +5 or more
    Volume$6,178.76
    Price2¢
    0.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?. The leading outcome is Trump +5 or more, with an estimated probability of 98% and a Yes contract price of $0.99. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026? is Dec 15, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Associated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Reddest House district to elect a Democrat in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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