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Economic events

Explore live odds across economics prediction markets on Public. Track probabilities for Fed interest rate decisions, inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, and recessions. Buy and sell event contracts based on your economic outlook, or use AI Agents to automate macro prediction market strategies.

Trade economics prediction markets

Buy and sell event contracts tied to inflation, interest rates, jobs, GDP, and recessions on Public. Plus, create AI Agents for macro strategies.

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Will the Citrini scenario happen?
| $51,943,232.78 Vol.
Yes
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
| $22,926,714.16 Vol.
Exactly 0 cuts
Exactly 1 cut
Exactly 9 cuts
Fed decision in Dec 2026?
| $21,015,596.02 Vol.
Hike 25bps
Hike >25bps
Fed maintains rate
Recession this year?
| $8,372,025.72 Vol.
Starts
UGA
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
| $4,136,090.74 Vol.
Above $4.60
Above $4.80
Above $5.00
Fed rate cut before 2027?
| $3,629,814.36 Vol.
Cuts
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
| $2,479,674.06 Vol.
Above 2.75%
Above 4.00%
Above 4.25%
Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026?
| $2,204,867.30 Vol.
Above 3.60
Above 3.70
Above 3.80
CPI YoY in November
| $2,177,648.68 Vol.
Above 3.6%
Above 3.7%
Above 3.8%
How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
| $2,110,664.06 Vol.
Above 92,500 MW
Above 91,500 MW
Above 92,000 MW
Recession in 2027?
| $1,991,352.70 Vol.
Yes
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
| $1,669,431.00 Vol.
Above 4.5%
Above 4.8%
Above 5%
US gas prices this week
| $1,661,833.66 Vol.
Above 3.8000
Above 3.8100
Above 3.8200
Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
| $1,506,140.28 Vol.
Above 83,000 jobs
Above 84,000 jobs
Above 85,000 jobs
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
| $1,447,368.40 Vol.
In 2026
Average Wall Street bonus in 2026
| $1,335,900.44 Vol.
Above $250,000
Above $275,000
Above $300,000
How high will inflation get this year?
| $1,261,941.02 Vol.
At least 5.0%
At least 4.5%
At least 6.0%
UGA
New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026
| $1,167,967.92 Vol.
Above 3.7000
Above 3.8000
Above 4.0000

Showing 18 of 562 events.

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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect. Timestamps are in UTC.


Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

Check the background of this firm on FINRA’s BrokerCheck.

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Self-directed brokerage accounts and brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options, and Bonds, except for treasury securities offered through Jiko Securities, Inc., are offered to self-directed customers by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. (“Public Investing”), a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA & SIPC. Additional information about your broker can be found by clicking here. Public Investing is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Public Holdings, Inc. (“Public Holdings”). This is not an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or open a brokerage account in any jurisdiction where Public Investing is not registered. Securities products offered by Public Investing are not FDIC insured. Apex Clearing Corporation, our clearing firm, has additional insurance coverage in excess of the regular SIPC limits. Additional information can be found here.

Options.
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Bonds.
“Bonds” shall refer to corporate debt securities and U.S. government securities offered on the Public platform through a self-directed brokerage account held at Public Investing and custodied at Apex Clearing. For purposes of this section, Bonds exclude treasury securities held in treasury accounts with Jiko Securities, Inc. as explained under the “ Treasury Accounts” section.

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Cryptocurrency.
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Treasury Accounts.
Investing services in treasury accounts offering 6 month US Treasury Bills on the Public platform are through Jiko Securities, Inc. (“JSI”), a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA & SIPC. See JSI’s FINRA BrokerCheck and Form CRS for further information. JSI uses funds from your Treasury Account to purchase T-bills in increments of $100 “par value” (the T-bill’s value at maturity). T-bills are purchased at a discount to the par value and the T-bill’s yield represents the difference in price between the “par value” and the “discount price.” Aggregate funds in your Treasury Account in excess of the T-bill purchases will remain in your Treasury Account as cash. The value of T-bills fluctuate and investors may receive more or less than their original investments if sold prior to maturity. T-bills are subject to price change and availability - yield is subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investments in T-bills involve a variety of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. As a general rule, the price of a T-bills moves inversely to changes in interest rates. Although T-bills are considered safer than many other financial instruments, you could lose all or a part of your investment. See Jiko U.S. Treasuries Risk Disclosures for further details.

Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value.

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