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Midterms

How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

10 or more87¢87%
12 or more67¢67%
14 or more43¢43%
$309.32 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election. Losses in 2026 House primaries and runoffs held before this market opened count, including for members who later leave office. Members who ran for a different office, such as the Senate, are not counted. Party is as listed by the Clerk of the House when this market opened. Non-voting delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not counted.

Trade Yes contracts

  • 10 or more
    Volume$144.92
    Price89¢
    -1.14% today
  • 13 or more
    Volume$60.40
    Price50¢
    -13.04% today
  • 15 or more
    Volume$40.00
    Price23¢
    +77.78% today
  • 14 or more
    Volume$34.00
    Price35¢
    +43.33% today
  • 12 or more
    Volume$18.00
    Price67¢
    +8.06% today
  • 16 or more
    Volume$12.00
    Price16¢
    +108.33% today
  • 11 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price79¢
    -100.00% today
  • 17 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price11¢
    -100.00% today
  • 18 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price8¢
    -100.00% today
  • 9 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price99¢
    -100.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • 10 or more
    Volume$144.92
    Price12¢
    +8.33% today
  • 13 or more
    Volume$60.40
    Price59¢
    +11.11% today
  • 15 or more
    Volume$40.00
    Price86¢
    -17.07% today
  • 14 or more
    Volume$34.00
    Price74¢
    -18.57% today
  • 12 or more
    Volume$18.00
    Price42¢
    -13.16% today
  • 16 or more
    Volume$12.00
    Price93¢
    -14.77% today
  • 11 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price24¢
    +354.55% today
  • 17 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price97¢
    +7.53% today
  • 18 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price98¢
    +4.17% today
  • 9 or more
    Volume$0.00
    Price5¢
    +3,233.33% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?. The leading outcome is 10 or more, with an estimated probability of 87% and a Yes contract price of $0.89. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026? is Dec 31, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Ballotpedia, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC, New York Times, Politico, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, official state or local election division websites, the Associated Press, the Clerk of the House of Representatives as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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