Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?

If any independent or third-party candidate wins an election for the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, any candidate that is not officially affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered independent or third party, regardless of whether they join a party’s caucus or conference after the election. For example, Senator Bernie Sanders would be considered an independent candidate. Third party or independent candidates who accept the endorsement of the Democratic or Republican party will still count if they are not officially affiliated or do not explicitly represent either of the two major parties. However, candidates that are officially affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will NOT count, even if they have the formal support of other third parties (such as the Working Families or Conservative parties in New York). The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.