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Blue wave in 2026?

Yes84¢84%
No16¢16%
$4,517,544.86 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceBureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$4,517,544.86
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Cabinet members and their immediate staff.
    • Federal Reserve Board members and regional Fed presidents.
    • Members of Congress and their senior staff.
    • White House senior staff and advisors.
    • Heads of relevant federal agencies referenced in components.
    • Employees of Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau.
    • Employees with pre-release access to economic data.
    • Federal statistical agency employees involved in data compilation.
    • Contractors with access to embargoed data.
    • Campaign managers and senior campaign staff for referenced candidates.
    • Political party leadership if election/appointment components included.
    • Judicial clerks if Supreme Court components included.
    • Congressional committee staff for relevant committees.
    • Journalists with embargo access to referenced data.
    • Employees of Source Agencies who cover relevant beats.
    • Political polling organization employees if polling components included.
    • Foreign government officials involved in treaty/agreement negotiations (if applicable).
    • Diplomatic staff with knowledge of agreement timing.
    • International organization employees (IMF, World Bank, UN) if relevant.
    • Immediate family members of all above categories.
    • Household members of prohibited persons.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$4,517,544.86
    Price85¢
    0.00% today
  • No
    Volume$4,517,544.86
    Price16¢
    0.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Blue wave in 2026?. The outcome is Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?, with an estimated probability of 84% and a Yes contract price of $0.85. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Blue wave in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Blue wave in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Blue wave in 2026? is Feb 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Blue wave in 2026? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Blue wave in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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