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Midterms

Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

Texas20¢20%
Kansas18¢18%
Michigan18¢18%
$13,087.84 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For ranked-choice voting, the vote shares in the last round actually conducted are used.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Michigan
    Volume$4,130.00
    Price16¢
    +5.88% today
  • Kansas
    Volume$1,174.60
    Price20¢
    +5.88% today
  • Iowa
    Volume$1,162.56
    Price19¢
    +6.67% today
  • Nebraska
    Volume$1,130.74
    Price11¢
    +11.11% today
  • Maine
    Volume$1,128.00
    Price19¢
    -37.50% today
  • Florida (special)
    Volume$1,094.26
    Price11¢
    +11.11% today
  • Ohio (special)
    Volume$888.00
    Price18¢
    +21.43% today
  • Alaska
    Volume$836.00
    Price17¢
    +21.43% today
  • Texas
    Volume$806.82
    Price20¢
    0.00% today
  • South Carolina
    Volume$421.36
    Price10¢
    +12.50% today

Trade No contracts

  • Michigan
    Volume$4,130.00
    Price87¢
    -1.20% today
  • Kansas
    Volume$1,174.60
    Price87¢
    -1.20% today
  • Iowa
    Volume$1,162.56
    Price88¢
    -1.18% today
  • Nebraska
    Volume$1,130.74
    Price93¢
    -1.10% today
  • Maine
    Volume$1,128.00
    Price88¢
    +7.14% today
  • Florida (special)
    Volume$1,094.26
    Price93¢
    -1.10% today
  • Ohio (special)
    Volume$888.00
    Price89¢
    -3.49% today
  • Alaska
    Volume$836.00
    Price87¢
    -3.49% today
  • Texas
    Volume$806.82
    Price87¢
    0.00% today
  • South Carolina
    Volume$421.36
    Price93¢
    -1.09% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which Senate races will be within 1 point?. The leading outcome is Texas, with an estimated probability of 20% and a Yes contract price of $0.20. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which Senate races will be within 1 point? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which Senate races will be within 1 point?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Which Senate races will be within 1 point? is Nov 3, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Alaska Division of Elections, Florida Department of State, Iowa Secretary of State, Kansas Secretary of State, Maine Secretary of State - Bureau of Corporations, Elections and Commissions, Michigan Secretary of State - Bureau of Elections, Nebraska Secretary of State, New Hampshire Secretary of State, North Carolina State Board of Elections, Ohio Secretary of State, South Carolina Election Commission, Texas Secretary of State as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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