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How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?

238¢38%
324¢24%
415¢15%
$63,633.12 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying jurisdictions are the 19 states that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. The District of Columbia, which Harris also carried, is excluded from this list because it is not a state and holds no U.S. Senate or gubernatorial election, so its inclusion or exclusion cannot change the count. The count is the number of the 27 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) and 2026 gubernatorial general elections held in those 19 states, as fixed at Issuance, that are won by a nominee of the Republican Party. A candidate who wins as an independent, or under a fusion, minor-party, or write-in line without being the Republican Party's own nominee, does NOT count, even if no Republican nominee appeared on the ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceAssociated Press, National Governors Association
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$63,633.12
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes contracts

  • 2
    Volume$26,710.86
    Price40¢
    +5.56% today
  • 3
    Volume$15,846.32
    Price24¢
    +9.09% today
  • 0
    Volume$12,148.58
    Price3¢
    +300.00% today
  • 1
    Volume$4,584.04
    Price12¢
    +30.00% today
  • 4
    Volume$2,802.58
    Price12¢
    +50.00% today
  • 5
    Volume$986.00
    Price9¢
    -66.67% today
  • At least 6
    Volume$554.74
    Price6¢
    -33.33% today

Trade No contracts

  • 2
    Volume$26,710.86
    Price64¢
    -3.13% today
  • 3
    Volume$15,846.32
    Price80¢
    -2.56% today
  • 0
    Volume$12,148.58
    Price98¢
    -6.12% today
  • 1
    Volume$4,584.04
    Price93¢
    -3.33% today
  • 4
    Volume$2,802.58
    Price92¢
    -5.56% today
  • 5
    Volume$986.00
    Price97¢
    +4.26% today
  • At least 6
    Volume$554.74
    Price100¢
    +1.03% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?. The leading outcome is 2, with an estimated probability of 38% and a Yes contract price of $0.40. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states? is Dec 15, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Associated Press, National Governors Association as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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