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Midterms

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

At least 138¢38%
At least 212¢12%
At least 36¢6%
$4,988.70 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation. Candidates identified with a political party do not count. Endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count.

  • Full contract termsView
  • Sourcethe Statistical Review of World Energy
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$4,988.70
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes contracts

  • At least 3
    Volume$3,629.32
    Price11¢
    -25.00% today
  • At least 1
    Volume$959.36
    Price38¢
    +11.76% today
  • At least 2
    Volume$400.00
    Price20¢
    -25.00% today
  • At least 4
    Volume$0.02
    Price7¢
    0.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • At least 3
    Volume$3,629.32
    Price96¢
    +2.17% today
  • At least 1
    Volume$959.36
    Price70¢
    -6.06% today
  • At least 2
    Volume$400.00
    Price88¢
    +4.76% today
  • At least 4
    Volume$0.02
    Price98¢
    0.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?. The leading outcome is At least 1, with an estimated probability of 38% and a Yes contract price of $0.38. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms? is Jan 3, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using the Statistical Review of World Energy as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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