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How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?

At least 1099¢99%
At least 1993¢93%
At least 2293¢93%
$15,054.30 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harris in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the 2024 vote totals do NOT add or remove districts. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceAssociated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$15,054.30
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes contracts

  • At least 46
    Volume$4,106.00
    Price32¢
    -10.71% today
  • At least 13
    Volume$3,804.00
    Price99¢
    -7.14% today
  • At least 19
    Volume$1,624.00
    Price99¢
    -3.13% today
  • At least 22
    Volume$1,604.00
    Price98¢
    -1.06% today
  • At least 40
    Volume$1,204.00
    Price46¢
    -16.67% today
  • At least 16
    Volume$800.00
    Price99¢
    -7.22% today
  • At least 35
    Volume$504.48
    Price59¢
    +9.26% today
  • At least 31
    Volume$491.18
    Price73¢
    +2.94% today
  • At least 25
    Volume$408.54
    Price88¢
    +3.57% today
  • At least 28
    Volume$356.32
    Price82¢
    -2.56% today

Trade No contracts

  • At least 46
    Volume$4,106.00
    Price76¢
    +4.17% today
  • At least 13
    Volume$3,804.00
    Price4¢
    +350.00% today
  • At least 19
    Volume$1,624.00
    Price6¢
    +75.00% today
  • At least 22
    Volume$1,604.00
    Price11¢
    +16.67% today
  • At least 40
    Volume$1,204.00
    Price63¢
    +12.07% today
  • At least 16
    Volume$800.00
    Price5¢
    +233.33% today
  • At least 35
    Volume$504.48
    Price50¢
    -10.87% today
  • At least 31
    Volume$491.18
    Price36¢
    -6.25% today
  • At least 25
    Volume$408.54
    Price21¢
    -18.75% today
  • At least 28
    Volume$356.32
    Price27¢
    +9.09% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?. The leading outcome is At least 10, with an estimated probability of 99% and a Yes contract price of $1.00. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026? is Dec 15, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Associated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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