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Elections

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%26¢26%
Democrats, 10 to 12%24¢24%
Democrats, 6 to 8%16¢16%
$6,398,904.38 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

  • Full contract termsView
  • Sourcethe Statistical Review of World Energy
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$6,398,904.38
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Republicans win
    Volume$2,093,410.88
    Price5.6¢
    +12.00% today
  • Democrats, 0 to 2%
    Volume$730,511.96
    Price2.6¢
    +20.00% today
  • Democrats, 2 to 4%
    Volume$571,160.98
    Price2.4¢
    -13.33% today
  • Democrats, 12 to 14%
    Volume$485,821.98
    Price13¢
    +16.67% today
  • Democrats, 14 to 16%
    Volume$445,277.34
    Price4.2¢
    +12.50% today
  • Democrats, 6 to 8%
    Volume$441,832.04
    Price16¢
    0.00% today
  • Democrats, 16% and above
    Volume$433,044.26
    Price3.7¢
    +5.00% today
  • Democrats, 10 to 12%
    Volume$415,256.90
    Price25¢
    +9.09% today
  • Democrats, 8 to 10%
    Volume$411,535.30
    Price27¢
    0.00% today
  • Democrats, 4 to 6%
    Volume$371,052.74
    Price6.5¢
    -5.71% today

Trade No contracts

  • Republicans win
    Volume$2,093,410.88
    Price94.6¢
    -0.63% today
  • Democrats, 0 to 2%
    Volume$730,511.96
    Price98.1¢
    -0.41% today
  • Democrats, 2 to 4%
    Volume$571,160.98
    Price97.7¢
    +0.41% today
  • Democrats, 12 to 14%
    Volume$485,821.98
    Price88¢
    -2.27% today
  • Democrats, 14 to 16%
    Volume$445,277.34
    Price95.9¢
    -0.52% today
  • Democrats, 6 to 8%
    Volume$441,832.04
    Price85¢
    0.00% today
  • Democrats, 16% and above
    Volume$433,044.26
    Price96.5¢
    -0.21% today
  • Democrats, 10 to 12%
    Volume$415,256.90
    Price76¢
    -2.56% today
  • Democrats, 8 to 10%
    Volume$411,535.30
    Price74¢
    0.00% today
  • Democrats, 4 to 6%
    Volume$371,052.74
    Price93.6¢
    +0.43% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot). The leading outcome is Democrats, 8 to 10%, with an estimated probability of 26% and a Yes contract price of $0.27. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot). On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) is Nov 3, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using the Statistical Review of World Energy as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

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