Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

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• Full contract termsView
• SourceABC, Axios, Ballotpedia, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, official campaign websites or social media accounts of declared candidates, person, the Associated Press, the Federal Election Commission
• Est. resolution dateNov 7, 2028
• Total event volume$186,500.70
• Timeline

  The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by November 7, 2028 at 4:59 AM UTC.

  1. Sep 16, 2025 at 9:00 PM UTCEvent open
  2. Nov 7, 2028 at 4:59 AM UTCEvent closed
  3. Nov 7, 2028 at 3:30 PM UTCProjected payout
• Insider trading is prohibited

  The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

  • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
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  • Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
  • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
  • Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
  • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
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  • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
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  • All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
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  • Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
  • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
  • Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
  • All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
  • State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
  • Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
  • Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
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  • Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.