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Elections

Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

D+40 or more22¢22%
D+37 to D+39.921¢21%
D+34 to D+36.914¢14%
$7,156 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column (share of mail ballots accepted) of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The "Percent Returned" column is not used. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the acceptdem, acceptrep and accept_none values for Pennsylvania in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceUniversity of Florida Election Lab
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$7,156.00
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes contracts

  • D+37 to D+39.9
    Volume$4,646.00
    Price28¢
    -12.50% today
  • D+40 or more
    Volume$2,154.00
    Price26¢
    0.00% today
  • D+34 to D+36.9
    Volume$106.00
    Price22¢
    -17.65% today
  • D+31 to D+33.9
    Volume$82.00
    Price14¢
    0.00% today
  • D+28 to D+30.9
    Volume$76.00
    Price13¢
    -9.09% today
  • Below D+25
    Volume$46.00
    Price2¢
    -50.00% today
  • D+25 to D+27.9
    Volume$46.00
    Price2¢
    -50.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • D+37 to D+39.9
    Volume$4,646.00
    Price81¢
    +3.95% today
  • D+40 or more
    Volume$2,154.00
    Price83¢
    0.00% today
  • D+34 to D+36.9
    Volume$106.00
    Price88¢
    +3.61% today
  • D+31 to D+33.9
    Volume$82.00
    Price89¢
    0.00% today
  • D+28 to D+30.9
    Volume$76.00
    Price91¢
    +1.12% today
  • Below D+25
    Volume$46.00
    Price99¢
    +1.02% today
  • D+25 to D+27.9
    Volume$46.00
    Price99¢
    +1.02% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?. The leading outcome is D+40 or more, with an estimated probability of 22% and a Yes contract price of $0.26. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin? is Nov 4, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using University of Florida Election Lab as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

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Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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