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Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall?

Ashley Hinson——
Roger Marshall——
$0 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Ashley Hinson's margin in the Iowa U.S. Senate election minus Roger Marshall's margin in the Kansas U.S. Senate election is at least 0 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their U.S. Senate race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places. A difference of exactly 0.00 resolves Hinson Yes.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceIowa Secretary of State, Kansas Secretary of State
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$0.00
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Ashley Hinson
    Volume$0.00
    Price49¢
    -100.00% today
  • Roger Marshall
    Volume$0.00
    Price52¢
    -100.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Ashley Hinson
    Volume$0.00
    Price52¢
    +92.31% today
  • Roger Marshall
    Volume$0.00
    Price49¢
    +108.33% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall?. The leading outcome is Ashley Hinson, with an estimated probability of 0% and a Yes contract price of $0.49. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall? is Dec 7, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Iowa Secretary of State, Kansas Secretary of State as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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