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Elections

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

Before Mar 1, 202787¢87%
Before Oct 1, 202775¢75%
Before Jul 1, 202771¢71%
$13,674.14 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$13,674.14
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$7,363.56
    Price15¢
    -7.14% today
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
    Volume$3,061.44
    Price52¢
    -8.33% today
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
    Volume$1,791.24
    Price75¢
    +5.63% today
  • Before Mar 1, 2027
    Volume$845.10
    Price25¢
    +335.00% today
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
    Volume$612.80
    Price70¢
    +7.58% today
  • Before Feb 1, 2027
    Volume$0.00
    Price19¢
    -100.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$7,363.56
    Price88¢
    +1.16% today
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
    Volume$3,061.44
    Price57¢
    +7.69% today
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
    Volume$1,791.24
    Price33¢
    -13.79% today
  • Before Mar 1, 2027
    Volume$845.10
    Price84¢
    -83.75% today
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
    Volume$612.80
    Price39¢
    -14.71% today
  • Before Feb 1, 2027
    Volume$0.00
    Price90¢
    +16.28% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?. The leading outcome is Before Mar 1, 2027, with an estimated probability of 87% and a Yes contract price of $0.25. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

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When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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