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Elections

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

Democratic by 9.0% or more23¢23%
Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%13¢13%
Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%11¢11%
$345,234.52 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceUnited States Congress
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$345,234.52
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
    • Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
    • Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
    • Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns.
    • Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations,
    • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and "Super PACs"
    • Paid employees of major polling organizations.
    • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations
    • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
    • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
    • All staff of the Office of the President of the United States
    • All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States
    • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices

Trade Yes contracts

  • Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%
    Volume$50,271.06
    Price11¢
    +10.00% today
  • Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%
    Volume$33,583.42
    Price13¢
    +8.33% today
  • Democratic by 9.0% or more
    Volume$33,175.58
    Price23¢
    +4.55% today
  • Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%
    Volume$23,497.38
    Price7¢
    +16.67% today
  • Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%
    Volume$21,193.76
    Price7¢
    +16.67% today
  • Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%
    Volume$19,993.58
    Price5¢
    +25.00% today
  • Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%
    Volume$18,883.00
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%
    Volume$18,050.58
    Price3¢
    +50.00% today
  • Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%
    Volume$16,657.04
    Price4¢
    -50.00% today
  • Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%
    Volume$14,060.04
    Price4¢
    -50.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%
    Volume$50,271.06
    Price90¢
    -1.11% today
  • Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%
    Volume$33,583.42
    Price88¢
    -1.14% today
  • Democratic by 9.0% or more
    Volume$33,175.58
    Price78¢
    -1.28% today
  • Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%
    Volume$23,497.38
    Price94¢
    -1.06% today
  • Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%
    Volume$21,193.76
    Price94¢
    -1.06% today
  • Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%
    Volume$19,993.58
    Price96¢
    -1.04% today
  • Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%
    Volume$18,883.00
    Price99¢
    0.00% today
  • Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%
    Volume$18,050.58
    Price98¢
    -1.02% today
  • Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%
    Volume$16,657.04
    Price97¢
    +2.08% today
  • Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%
    Volume$14,060.04
    Price97¢
    +2.08% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for 2028 popular vote margin of victory?. The leading outcome is Democratic by 9.0% or more, with an estimated probability of 23% and a Yes contract price of $0.23. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for 2028 popular vote margin of victory? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for 2028 popular vote margin of victory?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for 2028 popular vote margin of victory? is May 6, 2029. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using United States Congress as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for 2028 popular vote margin of victory? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on 2028 popular vote margin of victory?

  1. 1

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for 2028 popular vote margin of victory?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on 2028 popular vote margin of victory?

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2028 popular vote margin of victory?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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