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2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Democratic by 91 to 13013¢13%
Democratic by 61 to 9010¢10%
Democratic by 31 to 608¢8%
$50,681.38 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Democratic candidate wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 91-130 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceUnited States Congress
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$50,681.38
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
    • Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
    • Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
    • Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns.
    • Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations,
    • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and "Super PACs"
    • Paid employees of major polling organizations.
    • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations
    • All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice-President of the United States
    • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
    • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
    • All staff of the Office of the President of the United States
    • All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States
    • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices

Trade Yes contracts

  • Democratic by 211 or more
    Volume$6,116.80
    Price6¢
    -16.67% today
  • Republican by 1 to 10
    Volume$5,708.06
    Price4¢
    -25.00% today
  • Republican by 211 or more
    Volume$5,176.84
    Price4¢
    0.00% today
  • Democratic by 1 to 10
    Volume$4,924.52
    Price5¢
    +75.00% today
  • Democratic by 11 to 30
    Volume$4,253.90
    Price6¢
    0.00% today
  • Democratic by 131 to 210
    Volume$4,045.66
    Price8¢
    -12.50% today
  • Democratic by 91 to 130
    Volume$3,808.56
    Price13¢
    +8.33% today
  • Republican by 61 to 90
    Volume$3,754.00
    Price9¢
    0.00% today
  • Republican by 91 to 130
    Volume$3,754.00
    Price8¢
    0.00% today
  • Republican by 11 to 30
    Volume$2,278.00
    Price6¢
    -16.67% today

Trade No contracts

  • Democratic by 211 or more
    Volume$6,116.80
    Price95¢
    +1.06% today
  • Republican by 1 to 10
    Volume$5,708.06
    Price97¢
    +1.04% today
  • Republican by 211 or more
    Volume$5,176.84
    Price97¢
    0.00% today
  • Democratic by 1 to 10
    Volume$4,924.52
    Price96¢
    -3.13% today
  • Democratic by 11 to 30
    Volume$4,253.90
    Price95¢
    0.00% today
  • Democratic by 131 to 210
    Volume$4,045.66
    Price93¢
    +1.09% today
  • Democratic by 91 to 130
    Volume$3,808.56
    Price88¢
    -1.14% today
  • Republican by 61 to 90
    Volume$3,754.00
    Price92¢
    0.00% today
  • Republican by 91 to 130
    Volume$3,754.00
    Price93¢
    0.00% today
  • Republican by 11 to 30
    Volume$2,278.00
    Price95¢
    +1.06% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for 2028 Electoral College margin of victory?. The leading outcome is Democratic by 91 to 130, with an estimated probability of 13% and a Yes contract price of $0.13. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for 2028 Electoral College margin of victory? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for 2028 Electoral College margin of victory?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for 2028 Electoral College margin of victory? is May 6, 2029. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using United States Congress as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for 2028 Electoral College margin of victory? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on 2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

  1. 1

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for 2028 Electoral College margin of victory?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

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Live odds on 2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

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2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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