120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader?
Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If Hakeem Jeffries has announced that they will run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. House Democratic leader means the top post the House Democratic Caucus elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Democrats win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes. For a person who announced before Issuance, repeating that announcement does not count; only standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance resolves Yes. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, the New York Times
- Est. resolution date
- Total event volume$224.36
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
- Alexandria Ocasio-CortezVolume$156.36Price6¢+50.00% today
- Hakeem JeffriesVolume$68.00Price93¢-2.17% today
- Joe NeguseVolume$0.00Price6¢-100.00% today
- Katherine ClarkVolume$0.00Price6¢-100.00% today
- Pete AguilarVolume$0.00Price6¢-100.00% today
- Pramila JayapalVolume$0.00Price6¢-100.00% today
- Rashida TlaibVolume$0.00Price6¢-100.00% today
- Ted LieuVolume$0.00Price6¢-100.00% today
Trade No contracts
- Alexandria Ocasio-CortezVolume$156.36Price99¢-2.08% today
- Hakeem JeffriesVolume$68.00Price10¢+25.00% today
- Joe NeguseVolume$0.00Price99¢+4.17% today
- Katherine ClarkVolume$0.00Price99¢+4.17% today
- Pete AguilarVolume$0.00Price99¢+4.17% today
- Pramila JayapalVolume$0.00Price99¢+4.17% today
- Rashida TlaibVolume$0.00Price99¢+4.17% today
- Ted LieuVolume$0.00Price99¢+4.17% today
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120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader?
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Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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