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How many Deep South House seats will Democrats win in 2026?

At least 995¢95%
At least 1063¢63%
At least 1140¢40%
$837.70 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina is at least 9 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying districts are the 38 U.S. House districts in Alabama (7), Georgia (14), Louisiana (6), Mississippi (4) and South Carolina (7), under the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the Nov 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning Jan 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat, including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. In Louisiana, the Nov 3, 2026 open primary counts as the general election and its Dec 12, 2026 runoff counts as a runoff. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceAssociated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$837.70
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
At least 9
$400100¢-3.06%
At least 13
$386.945¢+600.00%
At least 11
$48.76100¢-59.18%
At least 10
$2100¢-35.71%
At least 12
$013¢-100.00%
At least 14
$05¢-100.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
At least 9
$4005¢+150.00%
At least 13
$386.94100¢-12.24%
At least 11
$48.765¢+2,900.00%
At least 10
$25¢+1,750.00%
At least 12
$096¢+8.70%
At least 14
$0100¢+2.04%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many Deep South House seats will Democrats win in 2026?. The leading outcome is At least 9, with an estimated probability of 95% and a Yes contract price of $1.00. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

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Each event contract represents an outcome for How many Deep South House seats will Democrats win in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many Deep South House seats will Democrats win in 2026? is Dec 15, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Associated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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How many Deep South House seats will Democrats win in 2026?

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