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Economics

US retail jobs added this holiday season

Above 350,000 jobs90¢90%
Above 400,000 jobs78¢78%
Above 550,000 jobs74¢74%
$33,159.86 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 350,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series (CEU4200000001). The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,378,400 jobs. The initial December estimate is used even if labeled preliminary. Later corrections, revisions, and benchmark updates to either month are ignored. No additional rounding applies. The measure includes seasonal and nonseasonal jobs and reflects net employment growth, not gross hires or announced hiring plans.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceFRED
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$33,159.86
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Above 600,000 jobs
    Volume$9,034.00
    Price22¢
    -76.32% today
  • Above 400,000 jobs
    Volume$6,272.92
    Price81¢
    +69.57% today
  • Above 500,000 jobs
    Volume$6,196.22
    Price75¢
    +33.33% today
  • Above 350,000 jobs
    Volume$4,742.88
    Price98¢
    +76.47% today
  • Above 300,000 jobs
    Volume$3,035.64
    Price97¢
    -52.94% today
  • Above 550,000 jobs
    Volume$2,893.88
    Price94¢
    +94.74% today
  • Above 450,000 jobs
    Volume$984.32
    Price75¢
    +92.11% today

Trade No contracts

  • Above 600,000 jobs
    Volume$9,034.00
    Price91¢
    +46.77% today
  • Above 400,000 jobs
    Volume$6,272.92
    Price90¢
    -59.26% today
  • Above 500,000 jobs
    Volume$6,196.22
    Price98¢
    -30.77% today
  • Above 350,000 jobs
    Volume$4,742.88
    Price97¢
    -79.59% today
  • Above 300,000 jobs
    Volume$3,035.64
    Price87¢
    +55.10% today
  • Above 550,000 jobs
    Volume$2,893.88
    Price98¢
    -58.06% today
  • Above 450,000 jobs
    Volume$984.32
    Price98¢
    -56.45% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for US retail jobs added this holiday season. The leading outcome is Above 350,000 jobs, with an estimated probability of 90% and a Yes contract price of $0.98. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for US retail jobs added this holiday season by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for US retail jobs added this holiday season. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for US retail jobs added this holiday season is Jan 8, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using FRED as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for US retail jobs added this holiday season and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on US retail jobs added this holiday season

  1. 1

    Create a Public account

    Sign up on Public.com or download the Public app for iOS or Android. Complete your profile in minutes, then explore live odds and probabilities across prediction markets.

  2. 2

    Fund your account

    Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.

  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for US retail jobs added this holiday season. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on US retail jobs added this holiday season

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US retail jobs added this holiday season

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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