Illinois pension debt in 2026?
Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing. The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System. Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together. The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceBureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation
- Est. resolution date
- Total event volume$22,714.22
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
- Above $170 billionVolume$11,118.00Price6¢+25.00% today
- Above $155 billionVolume$4,192.08Price6¢+25.00% today
- Above $150 billionVolume$2,672.58Price14¢0.00% today
- Above $160 billionVolume$2,367.26Price8¢+33.33% today
- Above $165 billionVolume$2,230.06Price7¢+16.67% today
- Above $145 billionVolume$84.24Price83¢+5.13% today
- Above $140 billionVolume$50.00Price99¢-2.11% today
Trade No contracts
- Above $170 billionVolume$11,118.00Price98¢-1.04% today
- Above $155 billionVolume$4,192.08Price99¢-1.04% today
- Above $150 billionVolume$2,672.58Price94¢0.00% today
- Above $160 billionVolume$2,367.26Price96¢-2.13% today
- Above $165 billionVolume$2,230.06Price96¢-1.06% today
- Above $145 billionVolume$84.24Price27¢-18.18% today
- Above $140 billionVolume$50.00Price9¢+40.00% today
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Illinois pension debt in 2026?
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Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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