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Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Above $140 billion93¢93%
Above $145 billion82¢82%
Above $150 billion10¢10%
$22,714.22 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026 is above $140 billion, as reported by the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing. The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System. Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together. The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceBureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$22,714.22
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Above $170 billion
    Volume$11,118.00
    Price6¢
    +25.00% today
  • Above $155 billion
    Volume$4,192.08
    Price6¢
    +25.00% today
  • Above $150 billion
    Volume$2,672.58
    Price14¢
    0.00% today
  • Above $160 billion
    Volume$2,367.26
    Price8¢
    +33.33% today
  • Above $165 billion
    Volume$2,230.06
    Price7¢
    +16.67% today
  • Above $145 billion
    Volume$84.24
    Price83¢
    +5.13% today
  • Above $140 billion
    Volume$50.00
    Price99¢
    -2.11% today

Trade No contracts

  • Above $170 billion
    Volume$11,118.00
    Price98¢
    -1.04% today
  • Above $155 billion
    Volume$4,192.08
    Price99¢
    -1.04% today
  • Above $150 billion
    Volume$2,672.58
    Price94¢
    0.00% today
  • Above $160 billion
    Volume$2,367.26
    Price96¢
    -2.13% today
  • Above $165 billion
    Volume$2,230.06
    Price96¢
    -1.06% today
  • Above $145 billion
    Volume$84.24
    Price27¢
    -18.18% today
  • Above $140 billion
    Volume$50.00
    Price9¢
    +40.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Illinois pension debt in 2026?. The leading outcome is Above $140 billion, with an estimated probability of 93% and a Yes contract price of $0.99. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Illinois pension debt in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Illinois pension debt in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Illinois pension debt in 2026? is Nov 1, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Illinois pension debt in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


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