Prediction Markets
Economics
October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k22¢22%

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k15¢15%

U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above11¢11%

1D1W1MAll

$2,217.36 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on Nov 6 at 1:29 PM UTC. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes. For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, as reported in thousands of jobs by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: U3 uses ECONSTAT and NFP growth uses PAYROLLS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.

Full contract termsView
SourceBureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Est. resolution dateNov 6, 2026
Total event volume$2,217.36
Timeline
The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by November 6, 2026 at 1:29 PM UTC.
1. Oct 2, 2026 at 6:30 PM UTCEvent open
2. Nov 6, 2026 at 1:29 PM UTCEvent closed
3. Nov 6, 2026 at 1:59 PM UTCProjected payout
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Cabinet members and their immediate staff.
- Federal Reserve Board members and regional Fed presidents.
- Members of Congress and their senior staff.
- White House senior staff and advisors.
- Heads of relevant federal agencies referenced in components.
- Employees of Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau.
- Employees with pre-release access to economic data.
- Federal statistical agency employees involved in data compilation.
- Contractors with access to embargoed data.
- Campaign managers and senior campaign staff for referenced candidates.
- Political party leadership if election/appointment components included.
- Judicial clerks if Supreme Court components included.
- Congressional committee staff for relevant committees.
- Journalists with embargo access to referenced data.
- Employees of Source Agencies who cover relevant beats.
- Political polling organization employees if polling components included.
- Foreign government officials involved in treaty/agreement negotiations (if applicable).
- Diplomatic staff with knowledge of agreement timing.
- International organization employees (IMF, World Bank, UN) if relevant.
- Immediate family members of all above categories.
- Household members of prohibited persons.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes contracts

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$535.16
Price20¢
-91.67% today
U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$420.00
Price8¢
-75.00% today
U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
Volume$362.18
Price31¢
0.00% today
U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$353.82
Price25¢
+22.22% today
U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above
Volume$331.48
Price8¢
+175.00% today
U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above
Volume$120.94
Price31¢
0.00% today
U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above
Volume$45.16
Price25¢
-72.22% today
U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k
Volume$24.62
Price26¢
-50.00% today
U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k
Volume$12.00
Price40¢
-95.00% today
U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$12.00
Price40¢
-95.00% today

Trade No contracts

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$535.16
Price99¢
+12.50% today
U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$420.00
Price100¢
+3.13% today
U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k
Volume$362.18
Price100¢
+1.19% today
U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$353.82
Price99¢
-4.88% today
U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above
Volume$331.48
Price100¢
-7.29% today
U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above
Volume$120.94
Price100¢
+11.90% today
U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above
Volume$45.16
Price99¢
+15.85% today
U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k
Volume$24.62
Price99¢
+10.98% today
U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k
Volume$12.00
Price99¢
+23.75% today
U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k
Volume$12.00
Price99¢
+23.75% today

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP. The leading outcome is U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k, with an estimated probability of 22% and a Yes contract price of $0.25. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP is Nov 6, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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2
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3
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Live odds on October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

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October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

Order

Odds

Yes 22%No 78%

Amount

Max payoutBefore fees

$0.00

Prediction Markets Glossary

Learn more

Event estimated to resolve on November 6 at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.

Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

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Live odds on October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

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October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

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FAQ

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Related events

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October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

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