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Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee?

Yes35¢35%
No65¢65%
$2 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the winner of the first state nominating contest wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The first state nominating contest is the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential nominating contest held in any of the 50 states that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes it or awards delegates on it. A state's contest is the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from that state (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). For New Hampshire, the contest is the Democratic presidential primary conducted by the New Hampshire Secretary of State, and for Iowa it is the first statewide presidential preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party conducts that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes either one. If contests in more than one state are held on the earliest date, the one that allocates the most delegates counts. A contest is held on its last day of voting. The winner of that contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no state contest is held, the market resolves to No.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceDemocratic Party
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$2.00
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
    • Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
    • Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
    • Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns.
    • Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
    • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and "Super PACs" (independent expenditure only political committees).
    • Paid employees of major polling organizations. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g. the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University’s polling division). The Exchange shall determine which polling organizations constitute "major" and may modify that determination at any time, and will post publicly a list of those organizations on its website.
    • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations (including, but not necessarily exclusive to, Fox News, ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ and NBC News). The Exchange shall determine which media organizations constitute "major" and may modify that determination at any time, and will post publicly a list of those organizations on its website.
    • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
    • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
    • All staff of the Office of the President of the United States
    • All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States
    • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$2.00
    Price45¢
    -12.50% today
  • No
    Volume$2.00
    Price65¢
    +8.33% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee?. The outcome is Winner of first state contest, with an estimated probability of 35% and a Yes contract price of $0.45. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee? is Nov 7, 2028. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Democratic Party as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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