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  3. Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?

Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?

Jon Ossoff55¢55%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez37¢37%
Gavin Newsom28¢28%
$516.96 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Jon Ossoff wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. Only a statewide primary or caucus held in one of the 50 states or the District of Columbia counts, and in each of them only the one that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from that state or district (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). For New Hampshire, the contest is the Democratic presidential primary conducted by the New Hampshire Secretary of State, and for Iowa it is the first statewide presidential preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party conducts that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes either one. The winner of a contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. A contest that is not held before Sep 1, 2028, or that reports no statewide vote count, does NOT count.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, New York Times, US State Governments
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$516.96
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$322.5438¢+8.82%
Jon Ossoff
$179.7458¢+3.77%
Andy Beshear
$1019¢+35.71%
Gavin Newsom
$4.6836¢+2,700.00%
Abdul El-Sayed
$013¢-100.00%
James Talarico
$015¢-100.00%
Josh Shapiro
$020¢-100.00%
Kamala Harris
$017¢-100.00%
Mark Kelly$016¢-100.00%
Pete Buttigieg$020¢-100.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$322.5469¢-4.55%
Jon Ossoff
$179.7451¢-4.26%
Andy Beshear
$1090.7¢-5.81%
Gavin Newsom
$4.6872¢+7,100.00%
Abdul El-Sayed
$096.9¢+8.70%
James Talarico
$094.9¢+11.11%
Josh Shapiro
$088¢+19.05%
Kamala Harris
$092.9¢+13.64%
Mark Kelly$093.9¢+12.36%
Pete Buttigieg$088¢+19.05%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?. The leading outcome is Jon Ossoff, with an estimated probability of 55% and a Yes contract price of $0.58. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries? is Sep 1, 2028. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, New York Times, US State Governments as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


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