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Economics

Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026?

Yes13¢13%
No87¢87%
$89,613.12 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 is above 24,431 employees, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution uses annual average employment in Arizona for NAICS 3344 - Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing, as reported by BLS QCEW. The 24,431-employee baseline is fixed to the published 2025 value at market launch; later revisions do not change the strike. QCEW publishes detailed industries for every state and annual-average files once the full year is available. For reference, the complete 2025 annual QCEW data became available with the fourth-quarter release on June 2, 2026.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceFederal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$89,613.12
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$89,613.12
    Price14¢
    -7.14% today
  • No
    Volume$89,613.12
    Price87¢
    +1.16% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026?. The outcome is Above 24,431 employees, with an estimated probability of 13% and a Yes contract price of $0.14. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

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Each event contract represents an outcome for Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026? is Jun 4, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Federal Reserve Bank of New York as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Will Arizona semiconductor employment increase YoY in 2026?

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