MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is below 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides: MacAskill side (fast growth): William MacAskill, Samuel Albanie and Tom Cohen Moll side (no fast growth): Benjamin Moll and Andrew Ho GROWTH CONDITION The MacAskill side wins if, for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2033, U.S. real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the previous peak. For each eligible quarter \(Q\): The applicable quarterly value is U.S. real GDP per capita for \(Q\). The previous peak is the highest quarterly U.S. real GDP per capita value reported for any quarter through and including \(Q-4\). Peak-relative growth is calculated as: (Quarterly value ÷ previous peak − 1) × 100 The condition is met when the resulting value is at least 15%. Equivalently, real GDP per capita for the applicable quarter must be at least 1.15 times the previous peak. This peak-relative comparison prevents growth caused solely by a rebound from a recession from qualifying. DATA SOURCE Resolution will use the official U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis measure “Real gross domestic product per capita,” published in NIPA Table 7.1 as series A939RX. The series is quarterly, seasonally adjusted and expressed in inflation-adjusted chained dollars. The series is also displayed by FRED. The quarterly value and the values used to establish the previous peak will be taken from the same BEA publication or data vintage. Calculations will use the published levels without separately rounding the resulting percentage. CLOSE CALLS If a BEA release shows peak-relative growth from 14.5% through 15.5%, inclusive, that quarter will instead be evaluated using BEA’s third estimate for the quarter. Using the third estimate: A value of at least 15% satisfies the growth condition. A value below 15% does not satisfy the growth condition. Once a quarter is subject to this close-call procedure, its third estimate controls the determination for that quarter. DETERMINATION The market resolves to MacAskill side as soon as an eligible quarter satisfies the growth condition. If no eligible quarter has satisfied the condition when BEA first publishes its estimate for Q4 2033: The market resolves to MacAskill side if the Q4 2033 result is above 15.5%. The market resolves to Moll side if the result is below 14.5%. If the result is from 14.5% through 15.5%, determination will be deferred until BEA publishes its third estimate for Q4 2033. Once the market has been determined, subsequent revisions will not change the result. The calculation does not require determining whether AI caused the reported growth. “Per capita” refers only to the human population. Resolution is based on the criteria above and does not depend on whether the participants concede, make the agreed payments or subsequently amend their private arrangement.