Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?
Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If OpenAI has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceArtificial Analysis
- Est. resolution date
- Total event volume$19,129.68
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
- IBMVolume$12,162.40Price4¢-33.33% today
- AlibabaVolume$2,720.00Price21¢+12.50% today
- OpenAIVolume$2,000.00Price88¢+1.19% today
- XiaomiVolume$1,706.00Price62¢-5.17% today
- DeepSeekVolume$480.00Price19¢-20.00% today
- GoogleVolume$61.28Price59¢-3.70% today
- AnthropicVolume$0.00Price84¢-100.00% today
- InclusionAIVolume$0.00Price9¢-100.00% today
- MetaVolume$0.00Price24¢-100.00% today
- MiniMaxVolume$0.00Price12¢-100.00% today
Trade No contracts
- IBMVolume$12,162.40Price98¢+1.03% today
- AlibabaVolume$2,720.00Price88¢-2.38% today
- OpenAIVolume$2,000.00Price21¢-6.25% today
- XiaomiVolume$1,706.00Price47¢+7.14% today
- DeepSeekVolume$480.00Price89¢+3.53% today
- GoogleVolume$61.28Price50¢+4.35% today
- AnthropicVolume$0.00Price22¢+426.32% today
- InclusionAIVolume$0.00Price99¢+5.26% today
- MetaVolume$0.00Price84¢+25.00% today
- MiniMaxVolume$0.00Price97¢+8.70% today
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Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?
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Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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