Prediction Markets
Science and Technology
When will any company achieve AGI?

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Jan 1, 203081¢81%

Before Jan 1, 203178¢78%

Before Jan 1, 202977¢77%

1D1W1MAll

$492,402.24 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Full contract termsView
SourceABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNBC, CNN, Financial Times, Fox Business, MSNBC, MarketWatch, NBC, Politico, Reuters, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Yahoo Finance, company, the Associated Press, the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database
Est. resolution date—
Total event volume$492,402.24
Timeline
The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by January 1, 2030 at 4:59 AM UTC.
1. Mar 3, 2026 at 3:00 PM UTCEvent open
2. Jan 1, 2030 at 4:59 AM UTCEvent closed
3. Jan 1, 2031 at 3:30 PM UTCProjected payout
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

Before Oct 1, 2026Closed
Before Jan 1, 2027
Volume$76,698.48
Price7¢
0.00% today
Before Oct 1, 2027
Volume$68,412.54
Price42¢
-2.38% today
Before Jul 1, 2027
Volume$67,088.74
Price29¢
0.00% today
Before Apr 1, 2027
Volume$46,289.24
Price19¢
+5.56% today
Before Jan 1, 2028
Volume$43,673.60
Price39¢
+2.63% today
Before Apr 1, 2028
Volume$20,014.88
Price57¢
+3.57% today
Before Jan 1, 2031
Volume$18,905.18
Price78¢
0.00% today
Before Jul 1, 2028
Volume$10,178.30
Price74¢
-1.35% today
Before Oct 1, 2028
Volume$9,752.94
Price75¢
0.00% today

Trade No contracts

Before Oct 1, 2026Closed
Before Jan 1, 2027
Volume$76,698.48
Price94¢
0.00% today
Before Oct 1, 2027
Volume$68,412.54
Price59¢
+1.72% today
Before Jul 1, 2027
Volume$67,088.74
Price72¢
0.00% today
Before Apr 1, 2027
Volume$46,289.24
Price82¢
-1.22% today
Before Jan 1, 2028
Volume$43,673.60
Price62¢
-1.61% today
Before Apr 1, 2028
Volume$20,014.88
Price44¢
-4.55% today
Before Jan 1, 2031
Volume$18,905.18
Price23¢
0.00% today
Before Jul 1, 2028
Volume$10,178.30
Price27¢
+3.85% today
Before Oct 1, 2028
Volume$9,752.94
Price26¢
0.00% today

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for When will any company achieve AGI?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2030, with an estimated probability of 81% and a Yes contract price of $0.82. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for When will any company achieve AGI? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for When will any company achieve AGI?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNBC, CNN, Financial Times, Fox Business, MSNBC, MarketWatch, NBC, Politico, Reuters, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Yahoo Finance, company, the Associated Press, the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on When will any company achieve AGI?

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When will any company achieve AGI?

Order

Odds

Yes 81%No 19%

Amount

Max payoutBefore fees

$0.00

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

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Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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