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Science and Technology

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1540 score52¢52%
At least 1550 score38¢38%
At least 1600 score5¢5%
$652,548.02 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If an AI model has a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceLM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$652,548.02
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • At least 1520 scoreClosed
  • At least 1550 score
    Volume$132,026.74
    Price28¢
    +18.75% today
  • At least 1530 scoreClosed
  • At least 1600 score
    Volume$45,444.28
    Price5¢
    +25.00% today
  • At least 1540 score
    Volume$35,738.70
    Price54¢
    -1.89% today
  • At least 1650 score
    Volume$10,963.66
    Price3¢
    0.00% today
  • At least 1750 score
    Volume$7,683.00
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • At least 1700 score
    Volume$3,604.44
    Price2¢
    0.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • At least 1520 scoreClosed
  • At least 1550 score
    Volume$132,026.74
    Price74¢
    -8.82% today
  • At least 1530 scoreClosed
  • At least 1600 score
    Volume$45,444.28
    Price96¢
    -1.04% today
  • At least 1540 score
    Volume$35,738.70
    Price48¢
    +2.13% today
  • At least 1650 score
    Volume$10,963.66
    Price98¢
    0.00% today
  • At least 1750 score
    Volume$7,683.00
    Price99¢
    0.00% today
  • At least 1700 score
    Volume$3,604.44
    Price99¢
    0.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for AI capability growth this year?. The leading outcome is At least 1540 score, with an estimated probability of 52% and a Yes contract price of $0.54. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for AI capability growth this year? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for AI capability growth this year?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for AI capability growth this year? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on AI capability growth this year?

  1. 1

    Create a Public account

    Sign up on Public.com or download the Public app for iOS or Android. Complete your profile in minutes, then explore live odds and probabilities across prediction markets.

  2. 2

    Fund your account

    Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.

  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for AI capability growth this year?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on AI capability growth this year?

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AI capability growth this year?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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