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Economics

Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

Between 43 and 48.99 million54¢54%
Between 37 and 42.99 million36¢36%
Between 49 and 55 million14¢14%
$31,103.84 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is between 43 million and 48.99 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant figure is the Bristol Bay-wide aggregate point estimate shown in the “Forecast” column on the row labeled “Total run.” The separate “Inshore Run” figure will not be used. The market also will not use the forecast range or prediction interval, escapement, harvestable-surplus figures, individual river or district forecasts, or the actual observed 2027 run. Only ADF&G’s initial non-preliminary preseason forecast will be used. In-season estimates, postseason run reconstructions, and revisions made after expiration will not affect resolution. If ADF&G provides only a forecast range without a point estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used. If ADF&G does not use the label “Total run,” the functionally equivalent Bristol Bay-wide figure, "projected total catch plus projected total escapement", will be used.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceAlaska Department of Fish and Game
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$31,103.84
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Between 37 and 42.99 million
    Volume$11,362.26
    Price37¢
    +12.50% today
  • Above 55 million
    Volume$9,163.56
    Price4¢
    -75.00% today
  • Between 49 and 55 million
    Volume$6,296.02
    Price16¢
    +40.00% today
  • Between 43 and 48.99 million
    Volume$3,416.00
    Price58¢
    +8.00% today
  • Between 29 and 36.99 million
    Volume$538.00
    Price8¢
    -25.00% today
  • Below 29 million
    Volume$328.00
    Price2¢
    +100.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Between 37 and 42.99 million
    Volume$11,362.26
    Price71¢
    -5.88% today
  • Above 55 million
    Volume$9,163.56
    Price100¢
    +3.13% today
  • Between 49 and 55 million
    Volume$6,296.02
    Price93¢
    -4.44% today
  • Between 43 and 48.99 million
    Volume$3,416.00
    Price52¢
    -8.00% today
  • Between 29 and 36.99 million
    Volume$538.00
    Price99¢
    +1.04% today
  • Below 29 million
    Volume$328.00
    Price100¢
    +9,700.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027. The leading outcome is Between 43 and 48.99 million, with an estimated probability of 54% and a Yes contract price of $0.58. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027 by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027 is Dec 4, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Alaska Department of Fish and Game as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027 and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

  1. 1

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

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Live odds on Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

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Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

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