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Midterms

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Texas30¢30%
Kansas27¢27%
North Carolina17¢17%
$315,154.36 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Texas is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Harris won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority. An unlisted qualifying state with the highest margin, or no qualifying state, makes every named market resolve NO.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Georgia
    Volume$39,940.68
    Price1¢
    — today
  • North Carolina
    Volume$35,168.64
    Price17¢
    +13.33% today
  • Alaska
    Volume$35,104.50
    Price12¢
    +20.00% today
  • Michigan
    Volume$29,087.76
    Price1¢
    — today
  • Mississippi
    Volume$27,983.60
    Price7¢
    +75.00% today
  • Montana
    Volume$24,695.78
    Price1¢
    — today
  • Louisiana
    Volume$22,133.78
    Price2¢
    0.00% today
  • South Carolina
    Volume$18,245.12
    Price14¢
    +21.43% today
  • Ohio
    Volume$15,955.56
    Price3¢
    +50.00% today
  • Florida
    Volume$12,623.40
    Price1¢
    — today

Trade No contracts

  • Georgia
    Volume$39,940.68
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today
  • North Carolina
    Volume$35,168.64
    Price87¢
    -2.35% today
  • Alaska
    Volume$35,104.50
    Price92¢
    -2.22% today
  • Michigan
    Volume$29,087.76
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today
  • Mississippi
    Volume$27,983.60
    Price94¢
    -3.13% today
  • Montana
    Volume$24,695.78
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today
  • Louisiana
    Volume$22,133.78
    Price100¢
    0.00% today
  • South Carolina
    Volume$18,245.12
    Price87¢
    -3.49% today
  • Ohio
    Volume$15,955.56
    Price98¢
    -1.02% today
  • Florida
    Volume$12,623.40
    Price100¢
    -1.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?. The leading outcome is Texas, with an estimated probability of 30% and a Yes contract price of $0.29. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? is Jan 3, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Alaska Division of Elections, Federal Election Commission, Georgia Secretary of State, Iowa Secretary of State, Kansas Secretary of State, Louisiana Secretary of State, Michigan Secretary of State, Minnesota Secretary of State, Mississippi Secretary of State, Montana Secretary of State, Nebraska Secretary of State, New Hampshire Secretary of State, North Carolina State Board of Elections, Ohio Secretary of State, South Carolina State Election Commission, Texas Secretary of State, Virginia Department of Elections, the Florida Division of Elections as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Quotes and other market data for Public’s product offerings are obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but Public makes no representation or warranty regarding the quality, accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness of this information. Such information is time sensitive and subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. You assume full responsibility for any trading decisions you make based upon the market data provided, and Public is not liable for any loss caused directly or indirectly by your use of such information. Market data is provided solely for informational and/or educational purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation and does not represent a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any particular security.

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