Prediction Markets
Economics
Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?

Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?

Before December 1, 202610¢10%

Before November 1, 20269¢9%

Before October 1, 20265¢5%

1D1W1MAll

$14,246.44 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full contract termsView
SourceABC, Associated Press, Axios, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the New York Times
Est. resolution date—
Total event volume$14,246.44
Timeline
The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by December 1, 2026 at 4:59 AM UTC.
1. Sep 22, 2026 at 3:00 PM UTCEvent open
2. Dec 1, 2026 at 4:59 AM UTCEvent closed
3. Oct 1, 2026 at 9:30 AM UTCProjected payout
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Current players, coaches, and staff of the league, association, or organization(s) governing the event. For college leagues/associations specifically, or where otherwise appropriate (as identified by the Exchange), this applies to current players/coaches/staff of the specific sport in <event> rather than the league/association as a whole (e.g., if the Division I Gonzaga Men’s Basketball Team is playing in <event>, this prohibition will restrict trades by current players/coaches/staff on NCAA Basketball, rather than all current players/coaches/staff in any NCAA sport).
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- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

Before October 1, 2026Closed
Before December 1, 2026
Volume$1,077.78
Price12¢
0.00% today
Before November 1, 2026
Volume$199.10
Price6¢
+125.00% today

Trade No contracts

Before October 1, 2026Closed
Before December 1, 2026
Volume$1,077.78
Price94¢
0.00% today
Before November 1, 2026
Volume$199.10
Price99¢
-5.21% today

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?. The leading outcome is Before December 1, 2026, with an estimated probability of 10% and a Yes contract price of $0.12. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Associated Press, Axios, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the New York Times as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?

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Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?

Order

Odds

Yes 10%No 90%

Amount

Max payoutBefore fees

$0.00

Prediction Markets Glossary

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

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Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.

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Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?

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Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba?

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