Estee Lauder (EL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Estée Lauder Cos demonstrates robust financial resilience, evidenced by a reported 3.9% year-over-year sales increase in fragrance, which comprises 16% of FQ4 sales, and robust projections for total sales growth in FY26, now anticipated at 5.0% year-over-year, reaching approximately $15.04 billion. The company's online sales channel continues to expand, constituting 31% of total reported sales in FY25, an increase from 28% in the previous fiscal year. Furthermore, strategic initiatives in travel retail, particularly in France, have yielded double-digit retail sales gains, supporting a positive outlook for the company's continued growth and market position in the global prestige beauty sector.

The financial outlook for Estée Lauder Cos appears concerning, with the company's FY26 EPS estimate revised down to $2.10 from $2.24, reflecting a lack of growth in profitability. Notably, skin care sales saw a significant decline of 16.2% YoY, driven primarily by weaknesses in the Asia-Pacific region and travel retail, while the hair care segment also reported a troubling 14.5% decrease. Although the company's FY26 sales outlook aligns with previous expectations, the underperformance in earnings compared to consensus estimates indicates potential challenges ahead.