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  4. Will France declare a state of emergency?
Politics

Will France declare a state of emergency?

Before Jan 1, 20276¢6%
Before Nov 1, 20261¢1%
$258,573.94 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the French government declares a state of emergency (état d'urgence) after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from Bloomberg News, Reuters, the Associated Press, or Le Monde qualifies. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify unless the new publication explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of its publication date. Republishing of content from other sources qualifies only if hosted on the outlet’s official platform with that outlet identified as publisher. A state of emergency (état d'urgence) is one declared by decree of the President of France in the Council of Ministers under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, for all or part of French territory, including overseas territories. It counts when the decree is adopted, not when it is merely announced, requested or under consideration. Curfews, protest bans and other measures taken by prefects or mayors, Article 16 or state-of-siege powers, a state of health emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), and natural-disaster declarations do not count.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceBloomberg News, Le Monde, Reuters, the Associated Press
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$258,573.94
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Before Nov 1, 2026Closed
Before Jan 1, 2027
$77.03K6¢+50.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Before Nov 1, 2026Closed
Before Jan 1, 2027
$77.03K97¢-2.08%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will France declare a state of emergency?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027, with an estimated probability of 6% and a Yes contract price of $0.06. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will France declare a state of emergency? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will France declare a state of emergency?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Bloomberg News, Le Monde, Reuters, the Associated Press as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on Will France declare a state of emergency?

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Will France declare a state of emergency?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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