iStar Inc (SAFE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Safehold is supported by a differentiated modernized ground-lease model that avoids fair market value resets, gives it top credit-claim seniority, and transfers building ownership at lease expiration, creating durable downside protection and long-duration value. Its small and growing platform means each new origination can materially lift EPS, while the stock’s 2026E valuation of 7.8x EPS and 29.8x FAD, alongside a 5.7% dividend yield, suggests attractive income-backed upside relative to 2027E estimates. Despite litigation and rate-related overhangs, improving deal activity, a 30Y Treasury around 5%, and portfolio metrics such as GLTV at 51% and a $255mn pipeline point to resilient fundamental growth.

Safehold is facing weaker fundamentals as earnings estimates are being cut to $1.58 per share for 2026 and $1.63 for 2027, primarily because the Brookfield joint venture is dilutive, interest expense is rising, and additional de-leveraging is pressuring returns. Its valuation is also vulnerable because the stock trades at a 5% premium to NAV despite historically averaging a 30% discount over the past five years, leaving limited margin of safety if growth slows. Elevated interest rates and a higher cost of capital are likely to keep weighing on ground lease originations and investment spreads, while market sensitivity was highlighted by the 20% drop over the past month as the 10-year Treasury moved from 4.70% on 8/24 to 5.18% on 9/24.