iStar Inc (SAFE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Safehold is supported by a differentiated ground-lease model that sits at the top of the capital stack, offering long-duration, highly durable cash flows and strong downside protection because the land reverts to the company at lease completion or default. Its pivot away from office exposure toward multifamily and affordable housing has been accretive, with 111 multifamily assets representing about 44% of gross book value in 2Q26, multifamily exposure up over 50% in three years, and annual rent growth near 2% with CPI-linked upside potential. The company’s simplified governance after the 1Q23 iStar merger, expanding customer base, smaller and more nimble deal sizes, and valuation of 7.8x 2026E EPS versus 8.0x 2027E EPS reinforce a constructive fundamental outlook.

Safehold is viewed negatively because its long-duration ground lease model is highly exposed to rising interest rates, and the recent move in the 10-year to 5.2% and 30-year to 5.6% raises financing costs while likely slowing CRE transaction activity. That backdrop threatens both investment volume and the $9.8B unrealized capital appreciation pool, since annual appraisals could be revised down as asset values weaken and monetization options like CARET sales become less attractive. Even with 2026 EPS held at $1.60, 2027 EPS was cut to $1.67 from $1.70 because of lower spreads, softer volumes, and weaker hotel income, reinforcing the view that the stock’s fundamentals remain rate-sensitive and fragile.