Riskified Ltd (RSKD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Riskified is benefiting from a clear inflection in fundamentals, with 2Q revenue rising 22% y/y to $98.7M, GMV up 13% y/y to $41.3B, and adjusted EBITDA of $3.9M well ahead of expectations, showing that new-logo momentum is translating into stronger operating performance. Its outlook is further supported by raised FY26 revenue guidance to $400M–$410M, broad-based growth across geographies and verticals, and rapid expansion in Digital Finance, which grew 180% y/y and expands the addressable market beyond core ecommerce fraud management. With $224M in cash and investments, no debt, a 13% decline in diluted share count over the last year, and disciplined buybacks, the company appears positioned to compound earnings while capturing rising demand for fraud and risk intelligence.

Riskified is challenged by persistent revenue concentration, with the top five merchants still accounting for 32% of revenue in 2025 despite a gradual decline from 49% in 2020, leaving growth vulnerable to churn or renegotiation by a small customer base. Its outlook is further pressured by a highly competitive fraud-prevention market, the risk of slower online retail spending in a recessionary macroeconomy, and the need to continuously adapt its AI-driven platform to evolving technological demands. The Chargeback Guarantee also creates direct liability exposure if fraud decisions are inaccurate or chargebacks are mismanaged, while foreign issuer status, regulatory changes, and geopolitical events add further uncertainty to operating performance.