Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rigetti Computing is well positioned because its chiplet-based architecture is showing measurable progress in gate fidelity, with 99.8% already achieved on a 9-qubit system, 99.6% on a 36-qubit machine in 2Q, and roughly 99.1% on the 108-qubit system with a path toward about 99.5% by year-end 2026. Strong commercialization signals reinforce the thesis: 1Q26 revenue beat estimates, backlog and billings reached record levels, and the Cepheus-1-108Q is generally available through Rigetti QCS, Amazon Braket, Microsoft Azure Quantum, and qBraid, broadening adoption on major cloud platforms. Financially, the company ended 2Q with $541M in cash, no debt, and a $100M CHIPS Act funding agreement that supports R&D and capex flexibility while it pursues quantum advantage and fault tolerance.

Rigetti Computing is facing a fundamentally fragile setup because its quantum-computing market remains early-stage, adoption timing is uncertain, and revenue growth may lag the long path to commercialization. The company is also under pressure from IBM, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, while its own 1Q26 results showed $4.4MM of revenue, 31.3% non-GAAP gross margin, and $21.4MM of non-GAAP OpEx, highlighting that operating costs still outpace scale. Even with roughly $200MM of capex over the next three years and liquidity projected through the end of 2030, persistent losses, mixed scaling results for its 9-qubit approach, and customer concentration raise the risk of dilution and weaker long-term returns.