Prudential Financial (PRU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Prudential Financial is well positioned fundamentally because it combines scale across three complementary earnings engines—US operations at about 50% of adjusted 2025 earnings, International at about 39%, and PGIM at about 11%—while also benefiting from PGIM’s roughly $1.47 trillion in assets under management at the end of fourth-quarter 2025. Its outlook is further supported by improving operating efficiency, as the adjusted operating expense ratio improved by approximately 100 basis points year-over-year in 2025 to about the midpoint of the current 8.5% to 10.5% target, with another 150 basis points of improvement expected over the next 3 years, alongside durable growth in Individual Life from record application levels, premium growth above historical norms, and strong demand tied to aging demographics and accumulation-oriented solutions. The company also appears to have multiple near-term earnings catalysts from large pension risk transfer demand, disciplined pricing in the competitive RILA market, and management’s ability to narrow the 2026 Corporate and Other loss to about $1.55 billion, even as execution risks in Japan and some less consistent pension risk transfer activity temper the quality of the growth profile.

Prudential Financial is facing a negative fundamental outlook because, although management has narrowed its strategy toward global retirement, asset management, and select group protection businesses, the plan still lacks enough detailed financial targets and timing visibility to build conviction. The company is asking investors to underwrite a turnaround that depends on about $750 million in pre-tax run-rate benefits not fully reflected until 2029 and a 150 bps improvement in the adjusted operating expense ratio over the next 3-years, which suggests a long and execution-sensitive path before meaningful earnings improvement becomes visible. Even with some near-term operational progress such as a group total benefit ratio of 80.4% in the quarter versus an 83% to 87% target range, the reliance on future execution across a complex business mix spanning the U.S., Japan, emerging markets, and PGIM’s roughly $1.47 trillion in assets under management leaves material uncertainty around sustained fundamental improvement.