Masco (MAS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Masco is benefiting from a stronger-than-feared 1Q26, with revenue of $1.92 BN (+6% y/y) and adjusted EPS of $1.04 beating expectations, while management kept the FY26 EPS guide at $4.10-$4.30 despite macro uncertainty. Fundamental support comes from pricing power and resilient demand in Plumbing, where sales rose 7%-9% and margins reached 18.3%, offsetting softer DIY paint, as well as cost savings that lifted Dec Arch margins to 19.0%. The company’s outlook is further strengthened by raised buyback and M&A deployment expectations to at least $800 MM in 2026, plus the belief that restructuring savings and easing tariff pressure can support earnings growth into 2027.

Masco is facing a negative setup because its core repair and remodel exposure makes revenue vulnerable to softer spending, while the downside case assumes CY’26E EBITDA of $1.36 billion and a 10.0x EV/EBITDA multiple amid declining sales and weaker operating leverage. Margin pressure is also a concern, with 2Q26 expected to contract after 1Q26 expansion, and management’s first-half margin guidance is flat despite tough comparisons. Additional risks include a global economic slowdown, softening new construction and R&R trends, promotional competition that limits pricing power, and rising metals, resins, and freight costs that could further erode profitability.