FTAI Stock Forecast & Price Target

FTAI Aviation is positioned for long-term value creation because its proprietary MRE model benefits from airlines seeking lower-cost alternatives amid OEM production and aftermarket constraints, driving market-share gains toward a 25% penetration target in the CFM56/V2500 aftermarket. Its expanding SCI platform adds an asset-light fee stream while securing engine feedstock and future demand, and management expects annual module capacity to rise by 1,000 units to 3,000 at maturity, with 14% of the aftermarket already captured. The newly confirmed $1.465bn Mod-1 order and the broader FTAI Power opportunity strengthen the outlook by converting run-out CFM56 engines into data-center power assets, supporting higher 2027 EBITDA potential despite near-term AL softness.

FTAI Aviation is facing a weaker fundamental setup because Aviation Leasing underperformed sharply, with 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of $88.2mn versus consensus of $116.3mn and BTIG’s $126.7mn, as capacity was redirected to Aerospace Products and aircraft sale closings slipped. The 2026 AP adj. EBITDA outlook of $1.05bn was reaffirmed, but the AL outlook was cut by $100mn, highlighting execution risk and a less favorable mix even as management shifts toward an asset-light model. The added pressure from AP margins moderating into the low-30% range, after previously targeting ~35% for FTAI Power, supports a cautious view on earnings quality and near-term visibility.