FTAI Stock Forecast & Price Target

FTAI Aviation is expected to continue its strong performance in the aerospace aftermarket industry thanks to its unique exposure to asset management, aerospace aftermarket, and demand for AI-powered technology. With strong financials, including adjusted EBITDA of $291.4mn and a projected 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $2.6bn, and recent announcements such as the $1.465bn order from an international cloud service provider, FTAI Aviation is well-positioned for growth and presents an attractive investment opportunity.

FTAI Aviation is facing challenges in its Aviation Leasing (AL) segment, as its adjusted EBITDA for 2Q26 came in well below expectations due to capacity being directed to Aerospace Products (AP) and a slowdown in the closing of aircraft sales. Additionally, their 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $2.3bn is lower than our previous estimates of $2.7bn, driven by lower expectations across all three segments (AP, AL, Power). This results in a revised price target of $350, down from $400, with a valuation multiple of 22x for AP, 11x for AL, and 15x for Power. The recent weakness in aftermarket peers and concerns about sustained higher fuel prices adds to the negative outlook.