FTAI Stock Forecast & Price Target

FTAI Aviation Ltd has demonstrated significant financial growth since its 2022 infrastructure spin-off, with firmwide revenue and adjusted EBITDA increasing approximately 260% and 180% to reach $2.55 billion and $1.21 billion, respectively. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on robust leasing demand and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) volumes for its CFM56 and V2500 engines, bolstered by access to over 1,000 CFM56 engines in a global fleet of over 22,000. Furthermore, FTAI's strong balance sheet, with roughly $500 million in cash and expectations of $750 million in adjusted free cash flow by 2025, supports a compelling outlook for continued asset appreciation and earnings growth.

FTAI Aviation Ltd faces a negative outlook due to its vulnerability to broader economic conditions, which can significantly impact returns and earnings growth, particularly as macroeconomic stability deteriorates. The company's adjustment of its fourth-quarter 2025 estimated adjusted EBITDA to $293 million reflects anticipated lower revenues in the Aviation Leasing segment, compounded by a slow transition to new asset management structures that could delay fee generation. Additionally, reliance on operator success creates substantial risk; any defaults or issues in payment collection from lessees would detrimentally affect FTAI's recurring cash flows and overall financial health.