Ducommun (DCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ducommun is supported by strong 3Q26 execution, with record $227M revenue, $40M EBITDA at a 17.5% margin, 28.9% gross margin, and $1.21 adjusted EPS, while record bookings of $354M lifted RPO to $1.3B and reinforced demand visibility. Its outlook is further strengthened by a healthy mix of commercial aerospace recovery and defense momentum, including 28% commercial aerospace revenue growth, a 2.2x military-and-space book-to-bill, and rising missile, radar, and electronic warfare content backed by hard contracts. Management’s Vision 2027 and Vision 2032 plans, along with higher-margin engineered products, pricing gains from the new Airbus agreement, and capacity for up to $500M of M&A, give a credible path to higher revenue and EBITDA margins over time.

Ducommun is challenged by a concentrated and cyclical revenue base, with 2024 military and space markets making up about 53% of sales and 2025 revenue still heavily reliant on Boeing and RTX at 13% and 18%, respectively. Its outlook is further constrained by execution risk from acquisitions, competitive and obsolescence pressures, and the restatement-linked material weakness that has raised questions about financial reporting reliability and management discipline. On top of that, leverage remains meaningful despite debt falling to $276M by July 2026, while uncertainty over defense funding, tariffs, and specific missile-program budgets could suppress sentiment and limit multiple expansion.