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Politics

Will a cabinet member be impeached?

Before Jan 20, 202969¢69%
Before Oct 1, 202766¢66%
Before Jan 1, 202865¢65%
$220,669.70 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The cabinet is defined as the following: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and White House Chief of Staff.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceThe New York Times
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$220,669.70
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$114,210.64
    Price7.8¢
    +33.33% today
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
    Volume$83,172.40
    Price66¢
    -1.52% today
  • Before Jan 20, 2029
    Volume$15,238.28
    Price79¢
    -11.54% today
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
    Volume$4,260.26
    Price37¢
    +9.68% today
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
    Volume$2,794.12
    Price56¢
    +4.00% today
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
    Volume$994.00
    Price68¢
    +6.45% today

Trade No contracts

  • Before Jan 1, 2027
    Volume$114,210.64
    Price95.8¢
    -2.13% today
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
    Volume$83,172.40
    Price35¢
    +2.94% today
  • Before Jan 20, 2029
    Volume$15,238.28
    Price25¢
    +40.91% today
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
    Volume$4,260.26
    Price69¢
    -4.35% today
  • Before Jul 1, 2027
    Volume$2,794.12
    Price52¢
    -4.00% today
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
    Volume$994.00
    Price41¢
    -10.53% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will a cabinet member be impeached?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 20, 2029, with an estimated probability of 69% and a Yes contract price of $0.79. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will a cabinet member be impeached? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will a cabinet member be impeached?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using The New York Times as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Will a cabinet member be impeached? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Will a cabinet member be impeached?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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