Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Howard Lutnick must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract shall settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceBloomberg News, CNN, Fox News, Politico, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, official government records and registries, person, the Associated Press, the New York Times, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held
- Est. resolution date—
- Total event volume$366,880.96
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $125.97K | 45¢ | -6.25% | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $78.58K | 20¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $41.56K | 74¢ | -11.90% | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $37.20K | 67¢ | -10.13% | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $33.88K | 63¢ | -7.35% | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $29.69K | 63¢ | -7.35% | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | $11.32K | 81¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Nov 20, 2026 | $4.45K | 8¢ | +14.29% | |
| Before Nov 26, 2026 | $3.79K | 17¢ | +6.25% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | $429.90 | 95¢ | -3.26% |
Trade No contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $125.97K | 56¢ | +5.77% | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $78.58K | 81¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $41.56K | 27¢ | +62.50% | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $37.20K | 37¢ | +38.10% | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $33.88K | 38¢ | +15.63% | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $29.69K | 38¢ | +15.63% | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | $11.32K | 41¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Nov 20, 2026 | $4.45K | 94¢ | -1.08% | |
| Before Nov 26, 2026 | $3.79K | 85¢ | -1.19% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | $429.90 | 12¢ | +37.50% |
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
How to trade the odds on Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
- 1
Create a Public account
Sign up on Public.com or download the Public app for iOS or Android. Complete your profile in minutes, then explore live odds and probabilities across prediction markets.
- 2
Fund your account
Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.
- 3
Buy and sell event contracts
Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.
- 4
Manage your portfolio
Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.
Live odds on Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
Track live odds and trade event contracts inside a multi-asset portfolio on Public. Plus, create AI Agents for your prediction market strategies.
Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
Prediction Markets Glossary
Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.
Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.
Event contracts offered by Open to the Public Investing, Inc. and Apex Clearing Corp. through KalshiEX LLC.