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Politics

Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?

Haley Stevens15¢15%
Lisa Murkowski7.2¢7%
John Fetterman5.6¢6%
$400,326.30 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Haley Stevens leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Haley Stevens leaves the Democratic party if, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, any of the following occurs: Haley Stevens changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent or unaffiliated status. Haley Stevens announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic party. Haley Stevens is expelled from the Democratic party by official party action. If Haley Stevens is a member of the U.S. Senate, Haley Stevens announces they will no longer caucus with the Democratic party or begins caucusing with a different party. The following do NOT count: Resignation from Congress or expulsion from Congress. Temporary suspension from party activities or committees while remaining a member of the Democratic party. Loss of party endorsement or support while remaining a member of the Democratic party. Statements about considering leaving the Democratic party without actually leaving. Being stripped of committee assignments while remaining a member of the Democratic party.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$400,326.30
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
John Fetterman
$147.41K5.2¢+40.00%
Lisa Murkowski
$142.24K7.2¢+20.00%
Thomas Massie
$37.07K4.9¢-42.50%
Haley Stevens
$32.20K14¢+7.14%
Don Bacon
$21.60K7¢+15.00%
Henry Cuellar
$19.80K6.2¢+12.50%
Marjorie Taylor GreeneResolved

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
John Fetterman
$147.41K96.6¢-1.67%
Lisa Murkowski
$142.24K94.6¢-1.28%
Thomas Massie
$37.07K97.7¢+1.77%
Haley Stevens
$32.20K87¢-1.16%
Don Bacon
$21.60K98.9¢-0.63%
Henry Cuellar
$19.80K98.9¢-0.52%
Marjorie Taylor GreeneResolved

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?. The leading outcome is Haley Stevens, with an estimated probability of 15% and a Yes contract price of $0.14. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Who will switch or leave their party in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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