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  4. US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS
Financials

US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS

Above 4.70%——
Above 4.75%——
Above 4.80%——
$0 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.70% at Dec 1, 2026 at 10:15am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For an 8:45am ET observation, use the 8:44am candle, covering 8:44:00am up to but excluding 8:45:00am ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Pyth Data Association. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. The economic event named in the title provides context. The published observation date and time govern; a delayed or rescheduled economic release does not automatically change that observation time.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourcePyth - 10Y UST
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$0.00
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Above 4.70%
$099¢—
Above 4.75%
$099¢—
Above 4.80%
$099¢—
Above 4.85%
$099¢—
Above 4.90%
$099¢—
Above 4.95%
$099¢—
Above 5.00%
$099¢—
Above 5.05%
$099¢—
Above 5.10%$099¢—
Above 5.15%$099¢—

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Above 4.70%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 4.75%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 4.80%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 4.85%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 4.90%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 4.95%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 5.00%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 5.05%
$0100¢+100.00%
Above 5.10%$0100¢+100.00%
Above 5.15%$0100¢+100.00%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS. The leading outcome is Above 4.70%, with an estimated probability of 0% and a Yes contract price of $0.99. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS is Dec 1, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Pyth - 10Y UST as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

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  4. 4

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How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 13, 2026?
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US 30Y Treasury yield at 8:45am ET · retail sales
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US 10Y Treasury yield at 8:45am ET · retail sales
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US 2Y Treasury yield at 8:45am ET · retail sales
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US 2Y Treasury yield at 2:15pm ET · FOMC minutes
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US 10Y Treasury yield at 2:15pm ET · FOMC minutes
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US 10Y Treasury yield at 1:15pm ET · 10Y TIPS auction
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US 5Y Treasury yield at 1:15pm ET · 10Y TIPS auction
| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.60%
Above 4.49%
Above 4.44%
US 2Y Treasury yield at 1:15pm ET · 10Y TIPS auction
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US 10Y Treasury yield at 1:15pm ET · 2Y Treasury auction
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| $0.00 Vol.
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.50%
Above 4.65%
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| $0.00 Vol.
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US 2Y Treasury yield at 8:45am ET · US PPI
| $0.00 Vol.
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 5.65%
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| $0.00 Vol.
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Above 5.05%
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.55%
Above 4.63%
Above 4.62%
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.44%
Above 4.28%
Above 4.66%
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.81%
Above 4.84%
Above 4.82%
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| $0.00 Vol.
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Above 5.39%
Above 5.41%
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| $0.00 Vol.
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Above 4.66%
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.73%
Above 4.28%
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| $0.00 Vol.
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| $0.00 Vol.
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| $19,730.76 Vol.
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$26,372.24 Vol.
5.45% or above
5.35% or above
5.5% or above
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$23,116.68 Vol.
5.7% or above
5.8% or above
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US 2Y Treasury yield at 8:45am ET · PCE and GDP
| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.74%
Above 4.72%
Above 4.68%
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.68%
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| $0.00 Vol.
Above 4.84%
Above 4.62%
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| $0.00 Vol.
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| $451,730.32 Vol.
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Live odds on US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS

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US 10Y Treasury yield at 10:15am ET · US JOLTS

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Alpha is an experiment brought to you by Public Holdings, Inc. (“Public”). Alpha is an AI research tool powered by GPT-4, a generative large language model. Alpha is experimental technology and may give inaccurate or inappropriate responses. Output from Alpha should not be construed as investment research or recommendations, and should not serve as the basis for any investment decision. All Alpha output is provided “as is.” Public makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy, completeness, quality, timeliness, or any other characteristic of such output. Your use of Alpha output is at your sole risk. Please independently evaluate and verify the accuracy of any such output for your own use case.

Market Data.
Quotes and other market data for Public’s product offerings are obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but Public makes no representation or warranty regarding the quality, accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness of this information. Such information is time sensitive and subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. You assume full responsibility for any trading decisions you make based upon the market data provided, and Public is not liable for any loss caused directly or indirectly by your use of such information. Market data is provided solely for informational and/or educational purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation and does not represent a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any particular security.

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