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Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026

Above 15.5 million barrels97¢97%
Above 16.0 million barrels89¢89%
Above 16.5 million barrels77¢77%
$145,977.34 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Kentucky Distillers’ Association reports that the number of Bourbon barrels aging in Kentucky as of January 1, 2026 was above 15.5 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the statewide Bourbon barrel inventory derived from inventories submitted by Kentucky distilleries and warehousing companies to the Kentucky Department of Revenue. Only barrels containing Bourbon will count; barrels containing other aging spirits will not. The January 1, 2025 figures, for example, were 16.1M Bourbon barrels versus 17.1M total barrels of all aging spirits.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceFederal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$145,977.34
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

  • Above 15.5 million barrels
    Volume$32,244.00
    Price94¢
    -1.02% today
  • Above 17.0 million barrels
    Volume$30,009.70
    Price42¢
    +10.26% today
  • Above 16.5 million barrels
    Volume$27,922.62
    Price77¢
    +1.32% today
  • Above 18.0 million barrels
    Volume$19,110.02
    Price7¢
    +16.67% today
  • Above 16.0 million barrels
    Volume$18,929.00
    Price83¢
    +3.49% today
  • Above 17.5 million barrels
    Volume$17,762.00
    Price16¢
    +25.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Above 15.5 million barrels
    Volume$32,244.00
    Price7¢
    +50.00% today
  • Above 17.0 million barrels
    Volume$30,009.70
    Price64¢
    -6.56% today
  • Above 16.5 million barrels
    Volume$27,922.62
    Price24¢
    -4.17% today
  • Above 18.0 million barrels
    Volume$19,110.02
    Price94¢
    -1.06% today
  • Above 16.0 million barrels
    Volume$18,929.00
    Price18¢
    -21.43% today
  • Above 17.5 million barrels
    Volume$17,762.00
    Price85¢
    -4.76% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026. The leading outcome is Above 15.5 million barrels, with an estimated probability of 97% and a Yes contract price of $0.94. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026 by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026 is Jan 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Federal Reserve Bank of New York as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026 and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026

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Kentucky aging Bourbon-barrel inventory as of January 1, 2026

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