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Economics

France credit rating downgrade in 2026?

Yes98¢98%
No2¢2%
$1,406.18 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If a downgrade by Moody’s, S&P, or Fitch, of France’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign issuer rating is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying downgrade is a reduction of at least one notch in France’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating (Moody’s), sovereign credit rating (S&P), or Issuer Default Rating (Fitch), relative to that agency’s immediately preceding rating. Both the downgrade announcement and confirmation by at least one of the Source Agencies must occur during the market period. Scheduled and unscheduled downgrades count; a subsequent upgrade does not negate a downgrade. Outlook changes, watch/review placements, withdrawals, and changes solely to short-term or individual debt-instrument ratings do not count. Ratings of entities other than the Republic of France are excluded.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC, Associated Press, Axios, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the New York Times
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$1,406.18
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Current players, coaches, and staff of the league, association, or organization(s) governing the event. For college leagues/associations specifically, or where otherwise appropriate (as identified by the Exchange), this applies to current players/coaches/staff of the specific sport in <event> rather than the league/association as a whole (e.g., if the Division I Gonzaga Men’s Basketball Team is playing in <event>, this prohibition will restrict trades by current players/coaches/staff on NCAA Basketball, rather than all current players/coaches/staff in any NCAA sport).
    • Paid employees of the league and league participants
    • Owners of teams and the league
    • and household members and immediate family of all above
    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$1,406.18
    Price98¢
    +20.99% today
  • No
    Volume$1,406.18
    Price70¢
    -89.47% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for France credit rating downgrade in 2026?. The outcome is Downgrade before 2027?, with an estimated probability of 98% and a Yes contract price of $0.98. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for France credit rating downgrade in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for France credit rating downgrade in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for France credit rating downgrade in 2026? is Jan 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Associated Press, Axios, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the New York Times as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on France credit rating downgrade in 2026?

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France credit rating downgrade in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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