Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
About
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Commerce Secretary before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Howard Lutnick must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract shall settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
- Full contract termsView
- SourceBloomberg News, CNN, Fox News, Politico, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, official government records and registries, person, the Associated Press, the New York Times, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held
- Est. resolution date—
- Total event volume$366,268.78
- Timeline
- Insider trading is prohibited
Trade Yes contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $125.97K | 45¢ | -6.25% | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $78.47K | 20¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $41.56K | 75¢ | -11.90% | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $37.20K | 68¢ | -10.13% | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $33.72K | 63¢ | -8.82% | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $29.69K | 63¢ | -7.35% | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | $11.32K | 81¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Nov 20, 2026 | $4.22K | 8¢ | +14.29% | |
| Before Nov 26, 2026 | $4K | 16¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | $429.90 | 95¢ | -3.26% |
Trade No contracts
| Contract | Volume | Price | 1D change | Est. probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $125.97K | 56¢ | +5.77% | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $78.47K | 81¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $41.56K | 27¢ | +62.50% | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $37.20K | 34¢ | +38.10% | |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $33.72K | 38¢ | +18.75% | |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $29.69K | 38¢ | +15.63% | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | $11.32K | 42¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Nov 20, 2026 | $4.22K | 94¢ | -1.08% | |
| Before Nov 26, 2026 | $4K | 85¢ | 0.00% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | $429.90 | 12¢ | +37.50% |
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Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
Prediction Markets Glossary
Learn moreEvent estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.
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