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  4. Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
Politics

Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

Yes40¢40%
No60¢60%
$491,281.98 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes: OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceOffice of Management and Budget, United States Office of Personnel Management
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$491,281.98
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes and No contracts

  • Yes
    Volume$491,281.98
    Price40¢
    0.00% today
  • No
    Volume$491,281.98
    Price61¢
    0.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?. The outcome is Yes, with an estimated probability of 40% and a Yes contract price of $0.40. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? is Dec 12, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Office of Management and Budget, United States Office of Personnel Management as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

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Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?

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Prediction Markets Glossary

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


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