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Politics

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Before January 20, 202926¢26%
Before 202820¢20%
Before 20274.1¢4%
$15,428,138.24 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$15,428,138.24
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Trade Yes contracts

  • Before 2027
    Volume$12,421,701.02
    Price4.5¢
    +2.50% today
  • Before 2028
    Volume$1,849,124.20
    Price19¢
    +25.00% today
  • Before January 20, 2029
    Volume$1,157,313.02
    Price26¢
    0.00% today

Trade No contracts

  • Before 2027
    Volume$12,421,701.02
    Price96.2¢
    -0.10% today
  • Before 2028
    Volume$1,849,124.20
    Price83¢
    -4.76% today
  • Before January 20, 2029
    Volume$1,157,313.02
    Price75¢
    0.00% today

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death). The leading outcome is Before January 20, 2029, with an estimated probability of 26% and a Yes contract price of $0.26. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death). On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Associated Press as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Live odds on Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

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Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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